Windy before the storm

Yesterday's Halloween was the warmest on record in Utah. Spanish Fork hit a high of 77 F. That evening, trick-or-treaters were spoiled with temperatures in the upper 60's. My clever skier costume would not have worked this year.

Source: mesowest.Utah.edu

This morning has been rather windy. Yep, the weather is changing and we've got a cold one coming.
We are currently pre-frontal, so our temperatures are still warm, but that will change quickly. The front will begin to pass around 3:00 and bringing with it cold air and rain. Oh, and snow in the mountains. Be prepared to see a really low snow level, it might scare you. In fact, I'm buying new tires right now to get ready for winter. Those on the benches could see some flakes, but I wouldn't expect it to stick.

Below shows the precipitation band along the front at 3:00 PM on Saturday. (NAM 4km model)

Source: weather.Utah.edu

Yep, we're pretty certain this will happen. Below is the short range ensemble forecasts which summarizes the results from 21 variations of the weather model. Notice that we are inside the 90% contour. (Contours show probability of rain more than .01 inches in 3 hours.)


Source: SPC.NOAA.gov

And one more model, the new and operational HRRR!
Hmmm, this makes me think we might not get a ton of rain. Also, this says the front is moving a little slower than the NAM suggests. I guess we'll just have to see how this plays out and how the models perform. Is the NAM right and confirmed by the high probability from the ensembles, or will the HRRR prove itself with minimal precipitation.


Source: mag.neo.NOAA.gov