Friday, June 27, 2014

Who has the best forecasts?

Lots of people tend to blame the weatherman. Here is a good read about weather forecast accuracy: 
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-accurate-weather-forecasts-2014-6. 
The author mentions a book called "The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver. I've read that book, and it is a very good read.

The below chart is in the article and book. A perfect forecast is along the black line. The NWS comes closest to the black line while the local TV meteorologist are less reliable. On-air meteorologists love to forecast rain more often than it actually occurs. The Weather Channel forecasts are pretty good, but they like to forecast rain when there is a small chance.


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