Sunday, June 8, 2014

Lightning Forecast

These fire flies are everywhere at night!
With one more week in Virginia that means I've got one week to experience a good, juicy southern thunderstorm. I've enjoyed the lightning bugs (I usually call them fire flies), but those small bugs aren't nearly as loud or dangerous as lightning.

Ingredients for a juicy lightning storm: moisture and lift. This week's forecast shows an approaching upper-level trough which will draw moisture from the Gulf and transport that moisture into Virginia by mid-week. Rain throughout the week is likely, but the best chance for a good lightning storm will be Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

Below shows the June 8th 18z NAM forecast valid for Thursday 00z (Wednesday night).
The NWS is calling for a likely chance of lightning. The Storm Prediction Center three day outlook show the potential for widespread thunderstorms the next few days. Below is shown the forecast for Storms will be scattered and largely affected by small scale topographic features and radiational heating, so we'll have to wait and see if one of the larger storm will cross over Charlottesville.

Update: June 11, 6:00 PM
The severe storm forecast has intensified since the Sunday forecast. Still a chance for storms on Thursday, but chances decrease as we move towards the weekend.

A camera in New York recently captured a tree being struck by lighting. Enjoy it!

Update July 1, 2014: Another exciting lightning video

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