Thursday, July 28, 2016

HRRR Model Verification for Spanish Fork, Utah

I've grabbed the HRRR analysis forecasts, plucked out the 2-meter temperature and wind values at the location of my weather station (UKBKB), and compared that with the observations from February 2016 to July 27 2016.
(black line is the HRRR analysis, and color line is the observed value)
The HRRR's Temperature analysis does pretty well, except for periods when we are in a cold pool in mid-February.

The wind analyses are all over the place and nearly always over estimated wind speed. This could be a siting issue. My station sits in a residential area between three houses where is could be sheltered from high winds. Also, I don't think models can quite nail down the winds yet. Definitely an area of research applicable to wind farms like the one in Spanish Fork Canyon.

Would be nice to see how the HRRR forecasts verify, but I just started saving forecasts fields starting yesterday. Maybe over the next few months we'll be able to see how forecasts do.

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