Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Wedding Weather

My brother is getting married this Saturday, so I better put together a forecast and update it each day to keep an eye on things. There are three events that day: 1) The marriage will happen in the morning at the Mt. Timpanogos Temple, 2) the luncheon will happen outside at a park in Provo, and 3) the reception that evening in Spanish Fork.

Overall Weather Pattern: A trough will enter Utah Friday afternoon bringing cooler temperatures and widespread rain. By Saturday morning the rain will exit Utah. That's good news for the wedding!

NAM Forecast issued 08-05-2015 12:00z
Some lingering clouds my be around the morning when my brother is married, but I don't expect any rain the rest of the day. In the afternoon the clouds will decrease and the sun will steadily warm us up. The high temperature for the afternoon will be in the mid 80s. Should be nice enough at the park to kick the soccer ball while we wait for the bride and groom to show up. The afternoon reception will also be dry, though the thing to worry about will be the winds. Nothing too fast, but it could be a bit gusty, enough to blow the paper plates off the tables.

It looks like the 18:00z NAM forecast is almost out, so we'll take a look at that soon.

UPDATE: August 6, 2015 2:00 PM

Below is the Short Range Ensemble forecast for Friday at 6:00 PM. Shown is the percent of models producing more than 0.01 inches of rain.

Now look at Saturday morning at 3:00 AM. Notice that the band of rain has moved north. I expect on Saturday morning the grass will be wet but the skies will start to clear.

Saturday at Noon

Saturday at 6:00 PM

So good news, this reception wont be rained out.
Looking at all the model members, yep, doesn't look like we'll get any new rain on Saturday after the sun rises. Still, it would be wise to keep an eye on the radar for any pop-up thunderstorm over the west mountains that could blow over.
Another thing to look at are the winds. The 4-km NAM forecast shows winds less than 10 mph in Utah county from the north, northwest in the evening during the reception. It may be a bit gusty, but no outrageous winds.

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