Saturday, November 14, 2015

Snow Coming Sunday Night/Monday Morning

The storm is on its way. Sunday Night and Monday you'll see more snowflakes falling. It seems like the impact of winter storms are a distant memory to me, so prepare yourself for this season's first winter storm. It will likely have a big affect on your morning commute.

The NAM forecast below can be viewed at This shows the approach of the pressure trough and the snow delivered to our mountains.

How much snow are we expecting?? We'll need to look at ensemble forecast to answer that question. Below shows the amount of snow expected in Salt Lake as forecasted by a dozen different models...
It's usually a pretty good guess to take the mean of the models -- about 2-3 inches of Snow on Monday -- But that's not to say the models predicting over 5 inches are totally out to lunch (though, I'm less inclined to believe it). I'll stick with the mean on this one.

Another way to look at these ensemble forecasts is by looking at a probability of different amounts of snow. Study the different plots below... The one on the top right suggests all of Salt Lake and Utah County have greater than 90% chance of receiving more than an inch of snow in the next week. Most of that snow will occur on Monday. Mostly the mountains and benches have a high chance of receiving more than 6 inches. And only the highest peaks have a high chance of getting a foot of snow.

It'll be important to keep an eye on this storm, especially if you are commuting into work or school Monday morning. You'll want to give yourself some extra time, or maybe go in late and wait for the roads to be cleared.

Thursday, November 5, 2015

It's Snowing

Even though been so caught up with other work today, it was nice to see the white flakes make a return. Naturally, everyone in the Atmos. department ran to the windows or outside to catch the flakes.

Yep, can't even see downtown.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

High Winds at Fremont Island

We were spoiled with a warm October, but expect a drastic change in the weather this first week of November. Today's high wind gusts are the precursors for cooler temperatures and rain (some snow in the mountains) this evening and tomorrow.

Fremont Island right now is experiencing wind gusts over 50 mph since early this morning. Right now the winds have steadily been from the south, but expect the change to northerly winds this evening.

Article: Debunking 5 Myths About Meteorologists

Dr. Marshall Shepard talks about what meteorologists really do...

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Model for Prediction Across Scales

This is a new way of thinking about weather modeling: Model for Prediction Across Scales. I'm pretty fascinated with how well this modeling method will work. The most interesting thing here is the change in grid convention. Notice the hexagonal shapes in the grid over the earth. The grid resolution is course for most of the globe, but is much higher over the United States. I'm currently playing with WRF models, but this model looks like something I'd like to look into.