Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Rain and Hail in Spanish Fork

It's raining and hailing in Spanish Fork...
Time: 18:50 UTC

You can see the cooler air accompanied by the storm from the temperature and dew point time series...Temperature goes down, and wet bulb (humidity) goes up. When the temperature and dew point temperature are the same that is about all the cooling that can be done by evaporation...a natural air conditioner.

There is some good cloud development shown up in the satellite images...
Time: 18:56 UTC

One interesting aspect of this storm is how the HRRR model handles it. The latest analysis hour has the reflective in the right spot, but the HRRR model gets rid of the storm by the first forecast hour. The storm has lasted into that hour, and so this is a case that the HRRR model is not useful for a short term forecast of this storm.
Time: 17:00 UTC
 Now look at the one hour forecast...the hail storm has disappeared. Yep, not really a useful short-term forecast.
Time: One hour forecast valid at 18:00 UTC

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